Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Bored 324

The world is an interesting place at the moment. Actually the world is always a fascinating place, but it is currently in a very precarious state. Any country that has the ability to "stimulate demand" is stimulating, and every other country is approaching whichever group or country with the cash with hat in hand. The last year has rocketed past, and left quite a bit of carnage in its wake. It doesnt seem that long ago when Bear Stearns disappeared and we still had giant investment banks. I bet you completely forgot about the $600/1200 checks from last spring. As I type this, I am listening to music through $100 Grado Labs headphones from my check!
Furthermore, America's typical enemies are in various states of peak belliegerence; partially because of the Bush Doctrine. Fortunately, a number of these enemies are just feeling the effects of plunging oil prices and are now being forced to put forth weaker attempts to harrass western nations. Think about when the last time you heard anything about Vladimir Putin, outside of his lambasting of Michael Dell at the Davos Confrence. I think the next couple of years will be interesting for Obama. No way in hell will he hit his projected budget deficit, but I think he is in a good position to usher in a new era of global cooperation thanks in part due to the recession. Iran is going be contained by the unexpected of triumvirate of the U.S., China, and Russia; that is of course if the administration can give into the other two just enough to encourage cooperation. Unfortunately, Afghanistan is continuing to be a quagmire. It took time for a solution to quell the violence in Iraq, and utimately one will come in Afghanistan, but it doesnt look like it is around the corner. More troubling, is the safe haven of Pakistan. Its extremely difficult to deal with the Taliban without ground troops. Especially if they are surrounded by civilians. Airstrikes tend to take out civilians at a higher rate than ground attacks, and as a result, it will be difficult to root out the Taliban with the locals becoming disilluioned with the NATO effort.
The next few years will be interesting to say the least. Its possible we could see a major war in the middle east. Africa will unfortunately take a step back, Russia will be a mystery, and China will roar.

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